The annual probability is based on data from the National Weather Service from 1991-2020. Regional Historical Oddsīelow we break down various white Christmas statistics, including the yearly probability, the number of white Christmases in each city's historical record and the last white Christmas. Since 2003, those percentages have varied widely from year to year, from 21% in 2003 to a whopping 63% of the contiguous U.S. On average, about 38% of the Lower 48 has snow on the ground on Christmas, according to 18 years of data compiled by the NOHRSC. That year, snow covered the northern tier as expected and reached into portions of the central Plains, Midwest and Northeast. had snow on the ground Christmas morning. The last three years were much less than 2017, when almost half of the U.S. There isn't much territory outside the Mountain West, the far northern tier and northern New England where odds of a white Christmas are greater than 50%. The chances are based on averages from 1991 to 2020. The map below shows the locations with a historical chance of a white Christmas in any given year. Lower chances for a white Christmas exist from portions of the Northern Plains into the upper Midwest, as well as in portions of the interior Northeast.
Our white Christmas outlook has the best chance for at least a 1-inch blanket of snow on the ground in the Mountain West and from Montana into northern Michigan, as well as parts of upstate New York into northern New England.
It doesn't have to be snowing on the holiday for that to happen. In meteorology, a white Christmas occurs when there is at least 1 inch of snow on the ground on Christmas morning. Christmas is almost here and we're getting a clearer picture of where snow may blanket the ground this year.
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